Are volcanologists at the point where they can predict virtually all large destructive volcanoes weeks in advance? Or would it be possible, for example, to have a large volcano such as Mt. Rainier to have a major eruption with the loss of many lives, without giving any signs of the eruption?

rocky Paul J. Grim

Dear Paul,

My name is Mike Conway and I am a volcanologist at Florida International University in Miami. My specialty is the volcanoes of the Central American arc in Guatemala. Dr. Chuck Wood asked me if I would have a go at your excellent question on eruption forecasting. So here goes!
In the past several decades, our short-term forecasting of large volcanic eruptions has improved by leaps and bounds. The success of scientists at Pinatubo was no fluke! But in reference to explosive volcanic behavior, short-term usually means hours to days, and rarely a week or more.
Volcanologists and seismologists who monitor active volcanoes have integrated several methods to track the state of an active volcano. The key ingredients in this integrated approach are: seismic monitoring, gas monitoring, and deformation studies.
Seismic monitoring consists of deploying a network of portable seismometers around the volcano. The seismometers are capable of detecting rock movement in the Earth's crust. Some rock movements may be associated with the rise of magma beneath an awakening volcano. Volcanologists that monitor gases often use a correlation spectrometer (COSPEC) that measures sulfur dioxide (SO2) in plumes rising out of volcanic craters. An increase in SO2 may indicate an increase in magma near the Earth's surface. Deformation studies monitor minute changes -- on the order of several mm -- in the shape of a volcano. When used together, these methods are capable of providing precise short-term information on volcanic behavior.
The science of monitoring volcanoes is still growing. Some volcanologists are using satellites to monitor active volcanoes. For example, the path of the volcanic plume erupted at Pinatubo was tracked using AVHRR weather satellites. Dr. Bill Rose and his students at Michigan Technological University are collecting and analyzing images of volcanic plumes from different eruptions to understand the evolution of plume in its journey through the atmosphere. Dr. Peter Francis (Open University) uses images from the LANDSAT multispectral satellite(s) to study the size and distribution of deposits from caldera-forming eruptions; this information provides important clues on the nature of future eruptions. Other scientists are looking at the gases emitted from volcanoes. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is one of the gases to first leaves a magma as it creeps up into the Earth's upper crust. If we could monitor CO2 accurately we might have a valuable tool for monitoring the state of unrest at volcanoes. The abundance of CO2 in the atmosphere has defeated us in the past, but volcanologist, Dr. Stanley Williams (Arizona State University), is working with the engineers who designed the COSPEC to design a similar tool that will detect CO2. In another few years we may be measuring both SO2 and CO2.
Still other scientists are using Geographical Positioning Systems satellites (GPS) to continuously monitor deformation at volcanoes. Dr. Tim Dixon (University of Miami) has monitored small changes (millimeters to centimeters) in the floor of the Long Valley caldera in California.
In short, the future is rosy for forecasting volcanic eruptions over the short-term and in most cases (i.e, Rainier) loss of life can probably be minimized. Of course, an essential ingredient to mitigating volcanic hazards is international cooperation and rapid deployment of trained personnel and technology. The U.S. is a leader in international volcanic hazard mitigation, and right now, the Volcanic Action Crisis Team (VCAT), of the U. S. Geological Survey, is in Mexico assisting Mexican volcanologists monitor VolcE1n Popocatepetl outside of Mexico City. Members of the VCAT crew cut their teeth on Mt. St. Helens in 1980, and later worked with the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology to forecast the powerful eruption at Pinatubo.
A caveat: eruption size is not always the controlling factor in the number of deaths incurred. The 1985 eruption of Nevado del Ruiz, Colombia, was, compared to Pinatubo, a rather small and insignificant eruption. Unfortunately, 25,000 people in the town of Armero were killed when a lahar, produced by melting of a summit glacier, swept through the town.
I hope this answers your question, but if not, or if it raises more questions, e-mail me at conwaym@servax.edu and I'll see what I can do to answer them.

Mike Conway, Florida International University 
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