What methods of predicting volcanic eruptions exist, and how long have those methods been in practiced?

Daniel King

Hi Daniel,

Volcanologists are able to follow patterns of seismicity as magma moves from down in the Earth's mantle to the surface. As the magma moves it has to break rocks and force its way to the surface. These breaking rocks produce earthquakes, and with enough equipment it is possible to follow these earthquakes through time. If you see the earthquakes starting to reach the surface then you can be pretty sure that an eruption is imminent.

Another technique that works at volcanoes that have been studied for a long time is to monitor the tilting of the surface of the volcano. For example, at Kilauea the magma chamber swells as it is filled with magma from the mantle below. As the magma chamber swells the whole volcano inflates, and the ground tilts ever so slightly. Eventually the pressure in the magma chamber becomes so great that the walls of the chamber fracture and magma migrates out to cause an eruption. After watching the patterns of many many such inflation-eruption events, the volcanologists at Kilauea have become pretty good at determining how much inflation (measured as tilt) the magma chamber can survive before it fractures and an eruption occurs.

Sincerely,

Scott Rowland

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