How successful have volcanologists and seismologists been in predicting eruptions and protecting people? What are the challenges for the next Century?

Michelle Nicholasen

There have been some good successes lately. The most obvious, of course, was the 1991 eruption of Pinatubo. Not only were the geologists successful in convincing the local officials to evacuate some 300,000 people, the eruption turned out to be huge. This really knocked home the point that evacuation is always the best strategy when dealing with explosive volcanoes. I don't think that all 300,000 people would have been killed if they hadn't been evacuated, but a good number of them would have. That would have been a huge disaster. As it was, I think something less than 100 people were killed by the eruption itself. There have been many more killed since the eruption by lahars, unfortunately. I guess the challenge for the next century is to increase the number of volcanoes that are carefully monitored - especially in poor countries. This will involve big investments in both equipment and training. The US Geological Survey, the Center for the Study of Active Volcanism at the University of Hawai'i at Hilo, and various other universities and volcano observatories around the world are working on this problem.

Sincerely,
Scott Rowland

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