I have been told that just before a volcano becomes active, erupts the
level of Hydrogen increases. This indicator apparently allows little time
for evacuation. Are there safer methods of monitering and predicting
future eruptions? If not at present, what are the future research
prospects?
I don't think that the amount of hydrogen can be a very useful indicator
of an impending eruption. For one thing there is usually very little
hydrogen contained in magmas, and that that is there is bound up as either
HS or HF rather than just plain old H.
Lots of people spent a lot of time looking for eruption prediction
patterns in the amounts and chemical compositions of gases emitted by
volcanoes. The problem is that the systems that are supplying and
modifying the gases are so complex, that even if you were able to come up
with a good prediction model for one eruption, it probably wouldn't work
for any other volcano, and might not even work for that same volcano next
time! That doesn't mean that the work is pointless, just that we don't
understand all the information yet.
Probably the best things to rely on are still the amount and location of
seismic activity and the amount (if any) of ground deformation at the
surface. These are not fool-proof by any means, but they are easier to
interpret, and are more often than not correct.
There are a number of relatively recent volcanic hazard and eruption
forecasting books that you would probably be able to find in your library.
They will have more detailed descriptions of the available techniques.
Sincerely,
Scott Rowland, University of Hawaii
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