Did the earthquakes before the eruption help to predict the
magnitude of the blast?
Elliot
Hi Elliottc,
I'm not sure what you mean by "the blast". Are you talking about
any eruption or one in particular. I think that volcano
seismology is still not to the point where the size of an eruption
can be determined only by the nature of the earthquakes. Many
other types of data go into a prediction of the size of an
upcoming eruption, and even then, the prediction is usually not a
very definite one.
Probably the best seismic evidence occurs when a swarm of
earthquakes can be seen to be migrating upwards from depth. This
usually occurs over a time period of a few weeks to days. This is
a pretty good indication that a batch of magma is working its way
to the surface. However, it is not a certainty that the magma
will actually erupt and it is especially not a certainty how much
magma will erupt.
Sincerely,
Scott Rowland
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