Hi Guys. Have just come back from a week in the Canaries, where among other things we visited Timafaya National Park in Lanzarote. We were told there that one of the main volcanoes in the park(Fire Mountain) is expected to erupt before the year 2000. Can you advise if this is true; What the likley effect on Lanzarote would be (given the large number of volcanoes across the canaries); & What tests are being done to predict the impact etc(other than those strictly for tourist interest . . burning bushes etc. . . )

Many Thanks in advance Andy

rocky Andy Warner

Dear Andy,

I think you just came back from visiting the people who know your answer the best. I don't think that other than based on statistics (i.e. average time between eruptions), there is any reliable reason to say that any particular volcano will erupt within a given time. Perhaps that particular volcano has erupted on average every 30 years and the last eruption was in 1970? Otherwise, if there isn't any observed unrest (increased seismicity, ground swelling, higher temperatures or changes in composition at fumaroles) then such a prediction is not very reliable. Some of these changes may indeed be taking place - I don't know - the folks back in the Canaries would be the ones to tell you.

Scott Rowland, University of Hawaii 

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