Hi. I'm interested to know:

(1) What, if anything, is the near-future prognosis for Pelee in Martinique, especially in view of the present volcanic activity on nearby Montserrat? Is there concern that Pelee may soon become (or is it now becoming) more active & possibly a danger?

(2) Was news of the Montserrat volcanic activity of last summer much publicized in the major media, or only in erudite volcanology circles? I'm curious, because (as you may know) a well-known alleged psychic (Sean David Morton) late last year predicted that Pelee would soon erupt as part of a chain of major natural disasters; might he instead have gathered related such info from items in the news, and simply "expanded upon it"?

rocky S.S.

Dear S.S.,

I have not heard anything about Mt. Pelee showing signs of unrest. It is certainly considered to be an active volcano, though, so any future activity should not be too much of a surprise to anyone. Nor would predictions of future activity be difficult to make. I don't know of any documented cases where activity at one volcano along a particular volcanic chain can be tied directly to activity at another. Each one has its own magma plumbing system that is supplied at its own rate. Just by chance once in a while it might be the case that two nearby volcanoes might erupt during the same year, but it would be very difficult to make a good scientific case for the events being related.

I have to admit that I hadn't heard about that particular prediction, but it isn't very hard to predict that an active volcano will erupt in the future.

Scott Rowland, University of Hawaii 

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