I have several questions about Mt. Vesuvius: (1) Viewed from Naples, Mt. Vesuvius appears to have twin peaks. Are they both technically part of Vesuvius? (2) I have read that as many as three million people could be affected by a large-scale eruption of Vesuvius. How large an area would that represent (i.e. how far from the volcano?) (3) Do you think Vesuvius is overdue for an eruption? Many thanks for your help.

Kathy

1. I believe the two peaks you are referring to are the main cone of Vesuvius and the adjacent somma (http://volcano.und.edu/vwdocs/volc_images/img_vesuvius.html). The somma formed by the collapse of a stratovolcano about 17,000 years ago. 2. There is currently an argument among several volcanolgists about the potential impacts of Vesuvian eruptions. See Vesuvius: The making of a Catastrophe (http://idt.net/~dobran/) Boris Behncke has complied detail information about Vesuvius (LINK TO: http://www.geo.mtu.edu/~boris/VESUVIO.html) that is very useful. A study suggests evacuation of 600,000 people but this study has been criticized as being flawed. The paper by Barberi and others will provide maps which will show areas and how they will be affected. Barberi F, Rosi M, Santacroce R and Sheridan MF (1983) Volcanic hazard zonation atVesuvius. In: Tazieff H and Sabroux JC (eds) Forecasting volcanic events. Developments in Volcanology I. Elsevier Amsterdam: 149-161 3. Vesuvius is one of the best studied volcanoes on Earth, with systematic observations being made since 1766. Quantifyiny is Vesuvius is "overdue for an eruption" falls on statistics. In the case of Vesuvius the statistics are skewed. From 1764-1906 Vesuvius erupted 12 times. Eruptions lasted from 1-26 years and repose periods, time between eruptions, lasted from months to 4 years. But the behavior of the volcanoes may be changing. The last two eruptions lasted 25 years (1875-1906) and 31 years (1913-1944). The repose perion of 7 years between 1906-1913 was longer than any in the previous 200 years. The current repose period of 52 years has not happened in the last 200 years. So, based on 1764-1875 data I'd say Vesuvius in long overdue for an eruption. Based on the data from the last two eruptions...it's too little information. The bottom line is Vesuvius will erupt again, probably in the lifetimes of most of the current residents. I'm sorry that I cannot provide you with definitive answers. I suggest you contact the volcanologists listed on the homepages. They are experts on Vesuvius and could better answer your detailed (and important) questions.

Sincerely,
Steve Mattox

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